2008年12点惨痛投资教训
2008 年 12 月 30 日 09:502
008年是令人痛苦的一年，不过从中学到宝贵经验教训的人不会两手空空地离开。你从中学到了什么教训或让你进一步加深了印象？我很想听一听。以下是让我感触很深的12点。
Associated Press
股市已经到底了？别傻到以为自己能抄底。
1. 你要对自己的财务状况负责。这意味着了解你的钱投资到哪里了，以及这样投资的原因。不要完全依赖理财顾问、投资组合经理或公司的计划上。毕竟，你将拥有最后的结果，而不是他们。
2. 绝不要完全相信某一位金融大师，不管他获得了多么高的推崇。谢天谢地，并没有多少人成为了马多夫(Bernie Madoff)。但华尔街最优秀的大部分高手今年仍亏损了至少40%。
3. 绝 不要投资于你不熟悉的领域。出于这个原因，多年来我一直拒绝推荐房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的股票，尽管各种各样的市场人士大力推荐。想象一下当包括它们的首席执行长在内的所有人都无法真正了解它们时，我的轻松心情吧。简单的股票，如亚 马逊(Amazon)或安海斯-布希公司(Anheuser-Busch)就很少让你这么尴尬。
4. 增加投资，而非减少投资。是不是小孩子们也在嘲笑我？我不怪你们。你们的存款刚刚减少了至少40%。但风险上升而收益下降意味着你需要投资更多才能实现自己的目标。
5. 不要认为跟随大众投资比较安全。最“流行”的投资往往都出现最坏的结果──从科技股（1999年）到房地产（2004年）再到新兴市场（2006-07年）。
6. 你的奶奶总会是对的。省了一分钱就等于赚了一分钱。债务总是危险的。如果用信用卡借1万美元比找到一名还在工作的电工还要容易，那么经济就正在遇到麻烦。
7. 珀史密斯(Psmith)也是对的。珀史密斯是谁？他是英国伟大的喜剧作家沃德豪斯(P.G. Wodehouse)小说中的人物。他常常警告将“不同寻常与不可能”混淆起来的危险。显然刚过去的一年是不同寻常的，不过，太多的人却认为这一切是不可能的。
8. 拥有足够的债券。是的，它们没有股票那么刺激。不过重要的恰恰也是这点。将所有资金都“长期”投入到股票中没有什么用途，如果它们在你到达终点前就全军覆没的话。
9. 当有人向你提供明显的优质产品时，比如实际收益率4%的通货膨胀保值国债，就接受它。当向你推荐劣质产品时，如实际收益率为零的同类债券，则拒绝它。
10. 避免不必要的风险。那些投机花旗集团(Citigroup)、WaMu或通用汽车(General Motors)股票的人今年的损失超过了绝大多数人。最大的投资错误通常在于你所购买的，而不是你所错过的。
11. 不 要轻信专家的预测。当所有专家都持一致意见时，尤其需要注意。记住，大多数经济学家在过去4次衰退中曾成功地预测了12次，但却错过了这次。根据长期的经 验，当我看到“英镑2009年有望上涨 因知名策略师预计减息将放缓”（彭博资讯(Bloomberg)，12月30日）这样的标题时，我就担心可怜的英镑又要遭殃了。
12. 仍 试图预测近期的走势，或是市场的底部吗？的确，也许11月份（道琼斯指数跌至最低7550点）可能会是市场的底部。但人们在1月份时（道琼斯指数 11971点），3月份时（11740点），7月份时（10963点），9月份时（10365点）和10月份时（8176点）也都这么说过。无疑，他们总 有一天会说对的。
Brett Arends
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It's been a terrible year, but those who learn some valuable lessons won't walk away empty handed. What lessons have you learned, or had reinforced? I'd love to hear. Here are 12 that struck me.
1. You have to take charge of your own finances. And that means understanding where your money is invested and why. There's only so far you can rely on advisers, portfolio managers and company plans. After all, you will own the results, not them.
2. Never put all your trust in one financial whiz, no matter how highly recommended. Few turn out to be Bernie Madoffs, thank heavens. But most of Wall Street's best and brightest still lost 40% or more this year.
3. Never invest in something you don't understand. For years, I refused to recommend Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock for this reason, despite the urgings of various market sources. Imagine my relief when it emerged that nobody else really understood them either -- including their own CEOs. Simple stocks, like Amazon, or Anheuser-Busch, rarely embarrass you in this way.
4. Invest more, not less. Is that a guffaw from the peanut gallery? I don't blame you. Your savings just fell 40% or more. But higher risk and lower returns means you need to invest more to reach your goals.
5. Never assume there is investment safety in numbers. The most 'popular' investments often turn out worst -- from technology stocks (1999) to real estate (2004) to emerging markets (2006-7).
6. Your grandma was right after all. A penny saved really is a penny earned. Debt really is dangerous. And an economy where it's easier to borrow $10,000 on a credit card than find a working electrician is heading for trouble.
7. Psmith was right, too. Who? This fictional character, created by the great English comic novelist P.G. Wodehouse, frequently warned against the perils of confusing 'the unusual with the impossible.' Certainly the events of the last year were unusual. Alas, too many thought they were impossible.
8. Own plenty of bonds. Yes, they're less exciting than stocks. Turns out, that's the point. There's little use keeping everything in stocks 'for the long run' if they kill before you get there.
9. When someone offers you obviously good value -- like inflation-protected Treasurys with a 4% real yield -- take it. When they offer you bad value -- like those same bonds with a real yield of 0%, as they had last winter -- don't.
10. Avoid needless risks. Those who speculated on Citigroup or WaMu or General Motors stocks suffered more than most this year. The biggest investment mistakes will generally be those you bought, not ones you missed.
11. Take all expert predictions with a pinch of salt. That goes double when the experts all agree. Remember, most economists successfully predicted 12 of the last four recessions, but somehow missed this one. After long experience, when I read a headline like 'Pound Poised to Gain in 2009 as Top Strategists See Slower Cuts in Rates' (Bloomberg, Dec. 30) it makes me fear for the poor old pound sterling.
12. Still trying to predict the next short-term move, or call the market bottom? Sure, maybe November (Dow 7550) will turn out to be the market low. But that's what some people said in January (Dow 11971), March (11740), July (10963), September (10365), and October (8176). One day, doubtless, they will be right.
Brett Arends
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