A and H shares near parity
By Andrew Wood in Hong Kong
Published: January 6 2009 17:48 | Last updated: January 6 2009 17:48
The difference in the share prices of Chinese companies listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong has narrowed dramatically in recent weeks and may disappear if the Chinese economy proves resilient in the slowdown.
The A shares of companies traded in Shanghai or Shenzhen were on average 16.1 per cent higher than the H shares of the same 56 companies listed in Hong Kong, compared with 44 per cent in early December and a peak of 108.1 per cent on 16 January 2008, according to the Hang Seng China AH Premium Index.
Mainland markets have different dynamics to those in Hong Kong. Shanghai was the world’s best-performing market in 2007 thanks to huge demand by domestic investors who could not buy shares overseas.
But mainland retail investors have turned cautious after the Chinese market halved in 2008. The internationally oriented Hong Kong market has recovered from 2008’s lows more quickly, narrowing the price gap.
The premium could even turn into a discount if foreign investors become “massively bullish” on Chinese companies and so bid up H shares in Hong Kong, said Khiem Do, head of Asian multi-asset at Baring Asset Management.
“If A shares trade at a discount, that means overseas investors are going crazy about China again and they can’t access the A share market, therefore they have to buy H shares.”
That could happen if China grows more than expected or if the US and other developed economies shrink further than feared in 2009, he said. “But there are some very big ‘ifs’ there.”
Hong Kong shares have risen faster than their mainland counterparts, Mr Do said, partly because some investors shorted the Hang Seng and the Hang Seng Chinese Enterprises Index of H shares as proxies to hedge against other emerging markets. As markets recovered, they had to buy back the shares. “That’s why the bounce has been so big.”
Even now, the shares of some small companies such as Nanjing Panda Electronics and Sinopec Yizheng Chemical trade on mainland markets at about 4½ times their Hong Kong price.
In theory there should be negligible differences be tween shares listed on two or more stock exchanges.
But China has strict capital controls. They prevent arbitrageurs from buying shares of a dual-listed company cheaply in Hong Kong and selling them at a higher price on the mainland – a process that would eventually equalise prices.
“In Hong Kong and in Shanghai and everywhere else the methodology [of valuation] is the same, but prices do vary from the intrinsic value,” said Steven Sun, senior China equity strategist for HSBC. “In the long run the difference should narrow.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
中国股市H股与A股价差缩小
英国《金融时报》安德鲁·伍德(Andrew Wood)香港报道
近几周来，在上海、香港均有上市的中国公司的两地股价价差急剧缩小，如果中国经济在这轮放缓中表现得具有弹性的话，这一价差可能消失。
根 据恒生AH股溢价指数(Hang Seng China AH Premium Index)，56家公司昨日在上海或深圳交易的A股股价，比它们在香港交易的H股股价平均高出16.1%。12月初时，前者比后者高出44%，价差最高 时是2008年1月16日，为108.1%。
内地市场的推动力格局与香港不同。2007年，因为有中国国内投资者的庞大需求，上海是全世界表现最好的股市。这些中国投资者无法购买海外股票。
但2008年中国股市市值蒸发一半后，内地的散户投资者变得相对谨慎。面向国际的香港股市更快从2008的低点恢复，使其与内地股市价差逐渐缩小。
霸菱资产管理(Baring Asset Management)亚洲投资组合经理Khiem Do称，如果外国投资者对中国公司“极其看好”，并因而推高港股股价，那么内地股市对香港股市的溢价甚至可能倒过来，变成折价。
“如果A股价格低于H股，那说明海外投资者再次为中国疯狂，同时由于他们无法进入A股市场，因此只能购买H股。”
他表示，如果2009年中国增长超过预期，或者如果美国和其它发达经济体萎缩超出市场担忧的程度，那么上述情况就可能发生，“但这里有几个很大的‘如果'。”
Khiem Do称，香港股票比内地的对应股票价格上升更快，部分原因是由于一些投资者此前卖空恒生和恒生H股中国企业指数，用这些指数作为其它新兴市场的代表，进行对冲。随着市场复苏，这些投资者不得不买回股票。“这就是为什么反弹如此之大。”
即使是现在，一些在内地市场交易的小公司股票，比如南京熊猫电子(Nanjing Panda Electronics)和中国石化仪征化纤(Sinopec Yizheng Chemical)，其股价还相当于香港市场的4.5倍左右。
译者/萧齐
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