Year Of Ox May Become Another Bear For Stocks 2009 年 01 月 02 日 10:31 The Chinese year of the ox that begins this month could turn out to be less like a bull and more like another big bear for Asian stocks. Even after 2008, when roughly $2 trillion of market value was lost in Asia by one measure, the region still has room for further downside. And again, investors will be fixing their sights on what happens in the far-off financial capitals of the Western world. Compare that to 12 months ago, when the scale of problems in the U.S. mortgage market was less clear. At the time, economists and stock-pickers were abuzz with theories about how Asian economies and markets could 'decouple' from the U.S. in 2008. In the following months, the markets proved them wrong with increasing vindictiveness. Fan Cheuk-wan, regional head of research at Credit Suisse Group's private-banking division, was among those who expected an economic decoupling. She thought Asian markets would remain resilient 'based on the premise that the U.S. subprime crisis would not deteriorate into a full-blown financial crisis,' Ms. Fan said. But it did, and Asia wasn't spared the pain. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index, a widely used index that excludes Japan, fell 52.2%, wiping out about $2 trillion in market capitalization by that metric. The region was battered by an exodus of cash. In all, global investors withdrew a net $59.9 billion from Asian stock markets in 2008, representing cumulative outflows of about 8% of their total holdings in the region, according to EPFR Global, which tracks asset-allocation data. In part, panic selling was to blame, as risk-averse Western investors sold off their foreign holdings. But over time, it became clear Asia's export economy was in for a beating as consumer demand in the West evaporated. The damage seemed to be distributed indiscriminately across the region. Benchmark indexes in Thailand and Pakistan, two countries rocked by a year of political instability, fell 47.6% and 58.3%, respectively. In Pakistan, the Karachi Stock Exchange imposed a floor on stock prices on Aug. 27, not allowing the index or individual shares to trade below the closing prices that day -- a rule that stayed in place until Dec. 15. In relatively stable economies such as Japan and Taiwan, where stock markets have been laggards for years, investors were punished just as harshly. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies fell 42.1%, and Taiwan's Weighted Index dropped 46.0%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and New Zealand's NZSX-50, two indexes battered when commodities prices collapsed in the second half of the year, fell 41.3% and 32.8%, respectively. In mainland China's domestic stock market, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 65.4%, dealing a sharp blow to a market that had been one of the world's top performers in the previous two years. Hong Kong's and Singapore's stock markets, two of the region's most liquid, became selling targets for global money managers faced with an unprecedented wave of redemptions and margin calls back home. Real economies in both markets also slid into recession, helping knock down Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index 48.3% , and Singapore's Straits Times Index 49.2%. India's Bombay Stock Exchange, which enjoyed three consecutive years of increases of more than 40%, saw its 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fall 52.4%. With stock prices having come down so far, many companies look cheap. But things like corporate fundamentals and stock valuations didn't seem to matter in 2008. 'A lot of stocks looked cheap, but in a crisis like this one, using traditional valuation methods could lose you a lot of money,' says Ian Huen of Hong Kong hedge-fund manager Striker Capital. One of its funds finished the year up 6% by making big bets against the market in Hong Kong, Japan and Australia. Exporters across the region, particularly in the technology sector, were hard hit amid weakening demand for their products, while property developers throughout Asia suffered as prices weakened in once-overheated markets such as China. One surprise hit came from sudden swings in commodity and currency prices, which hammered airlines and infrastructure plays, some of which had big losses from hedging and speculative bets on price movements during times of unprecedented volatility. Even with all of 2008's declines, few analysts and strategists think the market has factored in all the potential downside. Forced sales of assets and cutbacks in debt are likely to continue apace in the major economies. 'We're not out of the woods yet,' says Philip Jehle, head of private clients at Swiss bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch. Mr. Jehle, based in Hong Kong, is moving his clients' assets into corporate bonds and physical gold. Still, a number of analysts believe the second half of 2009 may be a good time to start picking winners. Many Asian companies are better able to weather hard times, having bolstered their balance sheets since the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Banks generally have simpler, more-conservative business models and a relatively limited exposure to the complex derivatives that tripped up U.S. and European banks. By the second half, strong policy actions by governments around the world will have had enough time to take effect. Tough times also will have given stronger companies a chance to swallow up or elbow out weaker rivals. 'Bankruptcies provide an opportunity for stronger companies to increase their market share and grow even if the total market size remains flat,' says Kathryn Matthews, chief investment officer for Fidelity International in the Asia-Pacific region. 'There is a lot of cash on the sidelines and once we see a recovery in confidence and increased investor flows, Asia-Pacific markets are likely to benefit.' China's aggressive stimulus measures, coupled with flexibility to lower interest rates further, make some believe it could be an early turnaround candidate. Jonathan Cheng 牛年将至 熊市难走 2009 年 01 月 02 日 10:31 中 国的牛年恐怕不会为亚洲股市带来多少牛气，而更有可能迎来又一个熊市。 按一项指标测算，2008年亚洲股市的市值共蒸发了约2万亿美元，但即便如此，该地区在新的一年里仍有继续下跌的空间。而且，投资者还将再次留意遥远的西方金融之都所发生的情况。 这同12个月前形成了鲜明的反差。当时美国抵押贷款市场问题的规模还不够明朗，而经济学家和股评家对亚洲经济和市场2008年将与美国“脱钩”的理论充满热情。在随后的几个月里，市场以大规模的报复行为证明了他们的论点是错误的。 瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group)私人银行部门地区研究主管范卓云就是曾预计经济脱钩的经济学家之一。她当时认为，亚洲市场仍会保持活力，理由是美国次贷危机不会恶化成全面金融危机。 但事实却并非如此，亚洲未能幸免于难。不包括日本在内的摩根士丹利资本国际亚太指数下跌了52.2%，按这一指标计算市值损失了约2万亿美元。 该地区也受到了现金流出的打击。跟踪资产配置数据的EPFR Global称，总体而言，全球投资者2008年共从亚洲市场净撤资599亿美元，约为他们在该地区总持仓额的8%。 恐慌性抛盘是其中的原因之一，规避风险的西方投资者都在抛出他们的海外持仓。但随着时间的推移，有一点越发清晰：亚洲的出口经济因西方消费需求大幅下降而受到了打击。 亚洲地区普遍受到了这种冲击。2008年陷入政治动荡的泰国和巴基斯坦的基准指数分别下跌了47.6%和58.3%。在巴基斯坦，卡拉奇证交所8月27日对股价设定了最低价，不允许指数或个股跌至8月27日的收盘价之下，这个规定一直实行到了12月15日。 在日本和台湾等相对稳定的经济体，尽管其股市多年来一直表现滞后，但2008年投资者受到的打击也同样惨重。日本日经225指数下跌了42.1%，台湾加权指数下跌了46.0%。澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数和新西兰NZSX-50指数都因下半年大宗商品价格的暴跌而出现重挫，分别下跌了41.3%和32.8%。 在中国大陆股票市场，基准的上证综合指数下跌了65.4%，使得此前两年在全球表现抢眼的中国内地股市受到了重创。 亚太地区流动性最强的香港和新加坡股市也成为在国内面临前所未有的赎回潮和追加保证金的全球基金经理抛售的目标。两个市场的实体经济也陷入了衰退，促使香港恒生指数下跌了48.3%，新加坡海峡时报指数下跌了49.2%。 连续三年涨幅超过40%的印度孟买证交所Sensex指数2008年重挫了52.4%。 随着股价的持续下跌，许多公司的股票已经到了看起来很便宜的水平。但公司基本面和股票估值等指标在2008年并未发挥多大作用。 香港对冲基金管理公司Striker Capital的Ian Huen说，许多股票看来很便宜，但在这样的危机中，采用传统估值方法可能输掉你的很多钱。该公司旗下的一只基金因做空香港、日本和澳大利亚市场去年上涨了6%。 该地区的出口商，特别是在科技领域的出口商，都因其产品需求的疲软受到了重创，而随着中国等一度过热的市场房价出现下跌，整个亚洲地区的房地产开发商也陷入了困境。出乎预料的一个打击来自大宗商品和汇率的突然大幅波动，这给航空公司和基础设施企业带来了困难，其中一些因在这个前所未有的动荡时期进行对冲和投机而蒙受了巨大损失。 即使经历了2008年的下跌后，也很少有分析师和策略师认为，市场已经消化了所有潜在的不利因素。主要经济体仍会继续面临被迫出售资产和削减债务的局面。 瑞士银行隆巴尔-奥迪耶-达里耶-亨奇(Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch)私人客户部负责人叶峰立(Philip Jehle)说，我们尚未脱离险境。驻香港的叶峰立正在将客户的资产转移到公司债券和现货黄金之中。 不过，许多分析师认为，2009年下半年可能会成为开始挑选优质股的好时机。许多亚洲公司能够更好地抵御艰难时期，它们自1997年亚洲金融危机以来已经改善了资产状况。银行通常采用了更为简单和保守的业务模式，对重创美国和欧洲银行的复杂衍生工具涉足有限。到明年下半年之前，全球各地政府推出的强有力的政策行动将有足够的时间发挥效力。艰难的市场环境也将令更有实力的公司有机会吞并或打击弱小的对手。 富达(Fidelity International)亚太区首席投资长马修斯(Kathryn Matthews)说，尽管总体市场规模没有变化，但破产为强大的公司增加市场份额和实现增长提供了机遇。有很多现金仍在观望，一旦我们看到了信心开始恢复和投资者流动性增加，亚太市场有可能从中受益。 中国推出了大规模的刺激措施，加之其拥有进一步减息的灵活性，一些人相信，中国可能率先复苏。 Jonathan Cheng