本月上旬，中国宣布提高外资对中国股票和债券的投资上限，国际投资者有很多理由为此欢呼。
根据新规定，单家合格境外机构投资者(QFII)的最高投资额度从8亿美元提高至10亿美元，保险公司和养老基金的投资本金锁定期从1年缩短为3个 月。
对于渴望从中国经济增长中分一杯羹的基金来说，这是一个利好。但在这些成为头条新闻的变化背后，一些迹象表明，中国政府正在收紧对外资机构使用投资 配额的监管。
上海咨询公司咨奔商务咨询有限公司(Z-Ben Advisors)表示，新QFII规定中，有一条“几乎不为人注意”的规定，“矛头指向最有利可图的QFII额度租赁业务”。
所谓额度租赁，是指卖方机构直接将自己的投资额度出租给规模较小的基金管理公司（只转让使用权，不涉及所有权），而不通报中国的监管机构。
租借方是那些倾向于短线投资或由事件驱动型的投资机构，“在中国，它们长期以来是最不受欢迎的投资者。我们认为，它们绝对是外管局(SAFE)新规 的目标。”咨奔分析师胡淼表示。
自从7年前启动QFII机制以来，外管局共批准了78家机构、总额157.2亿美元的投资额度。咨奔公司估计，其中供短期租赁的投资额度在15亿至 30亿美元之间。
虽然这在总体QFII额度中只占一小部分，但咨奔公司表示，对于至少9活跃卖方来说，出租额度相对利润丰厚，而活跃在这一领域的买方用户有上百家。
基金管理公司以租赁方式进入中国股市的第二种常见方式，是投资于卖方机构发行的CAAP（中国A股挂钩产品）及其它结构性票据。胡淼表示，根据新规 定，这些结构性产品已被“从一个可容忍的灰色地带，移到了一个更为灰暗、更不可能继续发展的地带”。
这家咨询公司估计，在QFII额度中，CAAP及同类产品约占60亿至70亿美元，大部分归属于安硕A50(iShares A50)这个交易所交易基金(ETF)。该基金管理下的资金规模在50亿美元以上。
“考虑到这些QFII A股基金的中长期投资目标，此类产品或许将存在下去。” 胡淼表示，“然而，从新规定的语气来看，CAAP/ASX用户及发行者应认识到，CAAP的发展可能会受到限制。”
安硕A50的管理方巴克莱全球投资者(Barclays Global Investors)拒绝置评。
根据新规定，胡淼建议，租借了2000万美元以上A股投资额度的投资者，尤其是CAAP用户，应开始直接申请QFII额度。与此同时，额度“房东” 应“立即重新考虑此项业务的风险/回报潜力”。
瑞银(UBS)中国证券部主管袁淑琴(Nicole Yuen)表示：“许多人开始关注以下事实：无论你如何解读规则，如今已不允许转让或转卖额度。我们仍期待主管QFII机制的两大机构，即外管局和证监 会，对新规提供更多确切的阐释。”瑞银是唯一全部用完QFII额度的机构，其投资额度为8亿美元。
QFII机制从2002年开始实施，旨在向范围有限的外国机构投资者开放中国资本市场，允许它们将外币兑换为人民币，投资于股票、基金、政府债券和 企业债券等各类证券。
实施QFII机制，是中国政府推动国内资本市场国际化这一长期进程的组成部分。中国资本市场基本上仍不对国际资金开放。
QFII机制的目标之一，是让国内企业接触外国投资，希望这有助于降低国内股票市场的波动性，但迄今为止未能收到这一效果：上海股市2007年的表 现为全球最佳，2008年为全球最糟，今年则先是大幅反弹，其后在8月份掉头下跌22%。
起初，QFII机制只有一些最基本的规定，以便中国立法者通过数月乃至数年的时间，在实践中加以观察，之后再完善相关规定。这种实验式的做法，使得 硬性规定屈指可数。
本月开始实施的措施之一，是将最低申请额度从5000万美元降至2000万美元。此举意在使QFII投资者基础多样化，鼓励规模较小的长期资产管理 公司投资中国股市。
译者/岱嵩
上海咨奔商务咨询(Z-Ben Advisors)有关中国实行6年的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)机制的最新年度报告，将于本周发表。该报告预测，该机制的“流动试验”将在未来几年 继续扩大，直至分配的额度到2014年达到300亿美元。目前，这一额度大约为110亿美元。
外国资金对中国股市的参与，受到该国资本管制的限制。
QFII机制仿效了韩国、巴西和台湾的类似项目，这些地方的股票市场曾增长迅速，但因国内投资者经验不足而受到波动性的困扰。
中国政府的想法是：外国基金管理公司将会有助于中国年轻的投资基金业的专业化。
不过，市场的完全开放并不认为是可取的，因为中国政府害怕“热钱”迅速流入和流出的不稳定影响。
为了控制这种做法，外国投资管理公司必须要申请执照和它们可以管理的资金额度。
咨奔商务咨询最新的QFII手册，分析了中国证监会(CSRC)和外管局(SAFE)近年回应外国投资管理公司申请的趋势。
他们在分配额度方面拥有巨大的自由裁量权。在2006年12月至2008年3月中国股市因散户投资者挤入而大涨时，没有发放任何额度。
撰写这份报告的咨奔商务咨询执行董事迈克尔•麦考马克(Michael McCormack)表示：“中国监管者在分配新QFII额度时有一组明确的优先顺序：针对散户投资者的零售基金。”
中国官方对那些把自己的额度授予给其它机构（例如对冲基金）的额度持有者印象不好。
译者/董琴
China quietly eliminates investment quota renting
By Robert Cookson in Hong Kong
Published: October 18 2009 10:48 | Last updated: October 18 2009 10:48
When China announced last week that it had increased the amount that foreign funds can invest in Chinese equities and bonds, international investors had plenty of reasons for cheer.
The new regulations raised the maximum sum a single Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) may invest from $800m (£489m, €537m) to $1bn, and shortened the lock-up period for insurers and pension funds to three months from a year.
But behind those headline changes, which are a boon for funds eager to tap into China’s economic growth, there are signs that Beijing is tightening the rules on how foreign institutions use their allotted quotas.
Z-Ben Advisors, a consultancy based in Shanghai, says an “almost unnoticed” provision of the new QFII regulations is “designed to threaten the most lucrative segment of the QFII quota rental business”.
This is where sell-side institutions rent out their quota directly – by transferring usage rights but not ownership – to smaller managers, without notifying China’s regulators.
These renters, which tend to invest on a short-term or event-driven basis, “have long been the least welcome investors in China and are, we believe, absolutely the targets of Safe’s new rules”, says Hu Miao, an analyst at Z-Ben.
Safe, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, has granted investment quotas totalling $15.72bn (£9.6bn €10.5bn) to 78 institutions since the QFII scheme was introduced seven years ago. Z-Ben estimates that between $1.5bn and $3bn of the quotas are available for short-term rental.
While this is a small part of the QFII programme as a whole, Z-Ben says it is has been relatively lucrative for at least nine sell-side participants and more than 100 buy-side users which have been active in this area.
The second and more common way by which fund managers rent exposure to Chinese stocks is by investing in CAAPs (China A-share Access Products) or other structured notes issued by sell-side QFIIs. Under the new rules, these structures have been “moved from a tolerable grey area to one far darker and less likely to prosper”, Ms Hu said.
The consultancy estimates that CAAP and similar schemes account for about $6bn-$7bn of QFII quota, the majority claimed by the iShares A50, an exchange traded fund with more than $5bn under management.
“Considering the mid-to-long-term investment objectives of these QFII A-share funds, such schemes will probably persist,” Ms Hu says. “However, given the tone of the new regulation, CAAP/ASX users and issuers should recognise that the growth of CAAPs could be constrained.”
Barclays Global Investors, which runs the iShares A50, declined to comment.
In the light of the new regulations, Ms Hu recommends that investors with more than $20m in rented A-shares, especially CAAP users, should start applying for direct QFII quotas. Meanwhile, quota “landlords” should “immediately reconsider the risk/reward potential of this business.”
Nicole Yuen, head of China equities at UBS, the only institution that had used its full $800m quota, said: “A lot of people are starting to focus on the fact that, however you translate the rules, the transfer or reselling of quota is being disallowed. We are still looking towards Safe and the CSRC, the two big authorities responsible for the QFII regime, to let us know more about the actual interpretation.”
The QFII scheme was launched in 2002 to open up the Chinese capital market to a limited range of foreign institutional investors. It allowed them to exchange foreign currency for renminbi, which could then be invested in securities such as shares, funds, and government and corporate bonds.
The scheme is part of a long-term process by which China’s government aims to internationalise its domestic capital market, which remains mostly shut off from global capital flows.
One goal of the programme was to expose local companies to foreign investment practices in the hope that this would help reduce volatility in the domestic stock market. It has not had that effect so far: the Shanghai market was the world’s best performer in 2007, the worst in 2008, and rallied sharply this year before diving 22 per cent in August.
Initial rules governing the programme were minimal, allowing Chinese lawmakers to observe the scheme in practice over months and years before refining the regulations. That experimental approach means there are few hard rules.
One of the measures introduced this month was to lower the minimum quota application to $20m from $50m, a move designed to diversify the QFII investor base and encourage smaller long-term asset managers to invest in Chinese stocks.
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China raises foreign funds investment cap
By Robert Cookson in Hong Kong
Published: September 4 2009 13:27 | Last updated: September 4 2009 13:27
Beijing unveiled a draft proposal to raise the amount that foreign funds can invest in Chinese equities on Friday, in a move analysts said was probably timed to boost sentiment after a torrid month for mainland stocks.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), the country’s foreign exchange regulator, proposed lifting the limit on foreign investment from $800m to $1bn and reducing the lock-up period for some types of funds from one year to three months.
The news will be welcomed by foreign investors, who have long been clamouring for greater access to mainland equities.
The proposal, released after Shanghai’s stock market had closed, comes at the end of week thick with speculation that China’s government would take steps to support mainland equities after they tumbled 22 per cent last month.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which often follows Shanghai, jumped immediately following the announcement, rising 2.8 per cent to 20,318.6 – its biggest daily gain in five weeks. The H share index of mainland Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong rose 2.9 per cent on the day.
With investors increasingly fearful of further sharp falls in Chinese stocks, the timing of the release was unlikely to be a coincidence, said Alan Lam, China equity analyst at Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank. “People were waiting for China’s government to say something or do something to support the market. The symbolism is quite big.”
The Shanghai market has been rocked in recent weeks by fears that a slowdown in bank lending, together with a large number of planned initial public offerings, would drain liquidity from the market and lead to further falls.
China’s Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) programme allows large foreign institutions to invest an approved amount in the domestic market. The total quota currently stands at $30bn, but less than $15bn has been allocated so far.
Some 87 foreign institutions have been licensed under the programme, with individual quotas ranging from $50m to $800m. Safe will be seeking written feedback on its proposal until September 18.
Peter Alexander of the investment firm Z-Ben Advisors in Shanghai said: “We try not to read too much into the tea leaves of what this might foretell. While this may have had something to do with the recent softness in the equity market we would be very wary of connecting dots that don’t exist.”
Fraser Howie, stock market analyst and author of Privatising China: Inside China’s Stock Markets, was sceptical of the impact of the proposed increase in quotas. ”It’s just a proposal and even if it’s adopted it would mean that QFIIs could apply for another $200m within the rules,” he said. “It doesn’t mean the increase would be approved. It doesn’t mean quota will be any easier to get.”
Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JPMorgan, said: “Although the total holdings of QFII investors amount to only a small fraction of the A-share market, these liberalisations – and potentially an accelerated pace of approvals – may signal official efforts to stabilise the domestic equity market.”
Additional reporting by Patti Waldmeir
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. Print a single copy of this article for personal use. Contact us if you wish to print more to distribute to others.
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