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分析：中国银行业的外资股东抽身不易？
2009-01-06 (www.ftchinese.com)
上周，瑞银(UBS)成为首家售出所持中国银行股份的海外银行，预计此举将引发一波减持潮。

包括高盛(Goldman Sachs)、花旗集团(Citigroup)、汇丰(HSBC)、TPG集团(TPG)、淡马锡(Temasek)、安联(Allianz)和苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)在内的一些外国金融机构，持有中国各大银行价值数百亿美元的股份。

这些股份大多是在2005年和2006年获得的，当时中国政府正热衷于引进西方资本和专业经验，以协助对其处于困境之中的银行业进行改革。

北京及其它地方的许多人目前希望知道，苏格兰皇家银行等机构是否有意出售所持股份，录得丰厚利润，以帮助修弥因金融动荡而受损的资产负债表。

在一些外资银行准备进行可能的减持之际，许多人也想知道，伴随当初投资时有关“战略合作伙伴关系”和“风险管理协助”的实施情况。

一位深度参与外国投资者与一些中国银行谈判的人士表示：“外资银行承诺很少，而（为他们的中方合作伙伴）做的甚至更少。但中国方面并不真正知道该要求什么，而是更关注敲定交易，作为实施获利异常丰厚的首次公开发行(IPO)的先决条件。”

另外至少有4位曾参与外资入股中国各银行交易的人士表示，尽管在政府的一个层面有意引进西方管理实践和风险控制，但银行引进外国投资者，主要是为IPO装点门面。

让高盛、美国银行(Bank of America)和苏格兰皇家银行等外资银行成为股东，中国银行(Bank of China)、中国建设银行(CCB)、中国工商银行(ICBC)和中国交通银行(Bank of Communications)在香港和上海上市时，就可以获得更高的估值，而从技术角度讲，这些银行此前几年就已破产。

人们认为，瑞银与那些签署了“战略合作伙伴关系”的银行略有不同，因为该行在中国银行5亿美元的投资，一向被认为是一项财务投资——一种“购买参与权”承诺，以帮助其赢得中国银行上市时利润丰厚的承销业务。中行于2006年6月在港上市，融资100亿美元。

上周，瑞银做出决定，认为其所持中行1.3%的股份不再是其战略核心，并在3年锁定期刚满，就以8.35亿美元售出。

瑞银强调称，仍“致力于”与中行的业务关系，及其在中国大陆的其它业务。

但交易撮合者表示，在中国政府正试图为各大银行提供支持之际，任何有意出售股份的外国机构，都将不得不认真权衡潜在的不利因素。

知情人士称，在被政府及银行业高层官员告知中国政府对出售时机感到不满之后，美国银行上月放弃了出售所持中国建设银行逾30亿美元股份的计划。

这使得其它银行担忧自己也不能出售股份。这些银行与美国银行一样，作为“战略合作伙伴”对中国各银行进行了投资。

中国经纪公司国泰君安分析师吴永刚表示：“目前中国股市处境糟糕，如果所有的大型外国投资者都从这些银行撤出，将进一步打击信心，政府不希望看到这种情况发生。”

股份出售还将受到买家需求的限制。

香港一位银行家称：“全球各银行正在审核非核心持股，无疑，许多银行将决定出售它们所持的中国各大银行股份，但它们不可能同时出售这些股份，因市场消化不了。”

译者/君悦
本文的网址：http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001024049

Routes out of China will be difficult to negotiate
2009-01-06 (www.ftchinese.com)
Last week UBS became the first overseas bank to offload its stake in a Chinese bank in a move expected to trigger a wave of divestments.

Foreign financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, HSBC, TPG, Temasek, Allianz and Royal Bank of Scotland own stakes in leading Chinese lenders worth tens of billions of dollars.

These holdings were mostly acquired in 2005 and 2006 when Beijing was keen to import western capital and expertise to help reform its moribund banking sector.

Many in Beijing and elsewhere are now asking whether the likes of RBS will be tempted to sell out and book handsome profits in order to help repair balance sheets strained by the financial turmoil.

As some of the foreign banks position themselves for possible divestments, many are also wondering what happened to all the talk about “strategic partnerships” and “risk management assistance” that accompanied the original investments.

“The foreign banks promised little and have delivered even less [to their Chinese partners],” according to one person who was deeply involved in negotiations between foreign investors and Chinese banks. “But the Chinese side didn't really know what to ask for and were more focused on getting deals done as a precursor to very lucrative IPOs.”

At least four other people involved in foreign investments in Chinese banks have said that, although there was interest at one level of the government in introducing western management practices and risk controls, the foreign investors were mainly brought in to provide window dressing for initial public offerings.

With names such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and RBS on their share registers, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications that were technically bankrupt a few years earlier were able to achieve higher valuations when selling shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

UBS was considered to be in a slightly different category from the banks that signed up for “strategic partnerships” because its $500m investment in BoC was always considered a financial investment – a “pay to play” commitment that helped it to win a lucrative mandate to advise on the $10bn Hong Kong listing of Bank of China in June 2006.

Last week, UBS decided that the 1.3 per cent stake was no longer core to its strategy and sold it – for $835m – as soon as a three-year lock-in period expired.

UBS stressed that it was “committed” to its relationship with BoC and to its other mainland businesses.

But dealmakers say that any foreign institution mulling a stake sale will have to weigh carefully the potential downside, at a time when Beijing is trying to garner support for its largest banks.

Bank of America last month cancelled a plan to sell more than $3bn worth of its shares in CCB after being told by senior government and banking officials that Beijing was unhappy with the timing of the sale, according to people familiar with the matter.

The cancellation has raised concern among other banks which, like BofA, invested in Chinese banks as “strategic partners” that they will not be able to sell down shares.

“The Chinese stock market is in a terrible situation right now and if all the big foreign investors are running away from the banks then that would hurt confidence even more and the government would not be keen to see that happen,” said Wu Yonggang, an analyst with Guotai Junan, a Chinese brokerage.

Stake sales will also be limited by the need to find buyers for the shares.

“Banks around the world are reviewing non-core holdings and many will no doubt decide to sell their Chinese bank stakes,” says one banker in Hong Kong. “But these share sales cannot all come at the same time as they will not be digested by the market.”
本文的网址：http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001024049